Between shipping lane closures in the Strait of Hormuz, tariff schedules changing and other supply chain disruptions, retail planners have had plenty to manage this year. Leading retailers are more prepared, able to deploy pre-planned responses faster, and keep up with the changes over time more effectively—here’s how.
Disruptions cause uncertainty, increased input costs and greater administrative burdens
Tariffs directly raise the landed cost of imported goods, and more exposure means more margin pressure, with some categories like apparel, home goods, and electronics particularly exposed. 50% of retailers saw gross margins fall 1–5% due to tariffs.
A single error in applying tariff schedules, value-added thresholds, or country-of-origin documentation can incur high penalties. So, tariffs bring operational disruption and new administrative burdens, forcing constant recalculation of landed costs and sourcing plans.
They also create volatility and uncertainty when it comes to forecasting. 27% of retail executives doubted tariff predictability, putting strain on plans and introducing risk.
And when it comes to supply disruption, erratic transit times for key lanes under disruption threat (think Panama, Suez, the Red Sea, and so on) make it very difficult for retail planners to forecast arrivals and align inventory with demand. Transportation costs also jump when lanes get blocked, as crucial capacity is effectively unusable while it cannot transit.
Looking at input costs, chokepoints of oil supplies and petrochemicals ripple through product costs. Many retail goods (textiles, plastics, packaging) depend on petroleum derivatives, and Middle East oil disruptions have already caused basic input prices to jump by 10–15% in some supply chains. At the same time, fuel-driven surcharges push up air and trucking costs.
Retail planners see these pressures reflected in higher merchandise unit costs, squeezing margins unless price increases or cost cuts are implemented. The cost of moving inventory also increases as fuel grows more expensive, making it more critical than ever to have an accurate forecast in the first place to limit the need for expediting shipments or inventory transfers.
How planners combat disruptions and tariffs with unified planning
All aspects of retail planning must adjust and work together in this always-disrupted paradigm. Here are the key questions leading retailers have found answers to.
1. How do planners stay on top of tariff exposure and tariff changes?
When it comes to tariffs, planners first need to know what their exposure is and when tariff schedules change. AI agents like Blue Yonder’s Tariff Agent monitor tariff rules and changes, understanding and communicating their impacts on inventory and sourcing, and recommending actions to limit exposure and manage resulting costs.
2. How should retail planners restructure financial plans around tariff exposure?
Merchandisers are overhauling open-to-buy budgets and recalibrating them based on updated landed costs before forward commitments are locked in. That means shifting spend away from tariff-exposed categories early, not after the damage is done.
The more sophisticated approach builds tariff scenarios directly into Merchandise Financial Planning: stress-testing category gross margin targets at different duty rates, adjusting markdown forecasts for at-risk lines, and tightening inventory turnover targets on exposed stock. Working capital trapped in tariff-inflated, slow-moving goods is a compounding problem. Planners who model that risk early have more room to act on it.
3. What role does assortment optimization play in tariff and disruption mitigation?
Assortment decisions are where tariff exposure either gets managed or ignored. Retailers are mapping products to country-of-origin and tariff codes to identify high-risk items, then removing or deferring those items from plans while duties make them unprofitable.
The flipside is prioritization: domestically produced alternatives and lower-tariff sourcing options move up in the assortment. In discretionary categories, introducing value-line options helps retain volume. In essentials, tighter pricing and loss-leader strategies keep consumer value perceptions intact even when costs are rising.
4. Why does supply chain diversification matter for both tariffs and disruption?
Both tariffs and supply disruptions expose the same underlying vulnerability: over-reliance on a narrow sourcing base. According to recent procurement data, 63% of procurement executives have broadened their supplier base, and 57% have accelerated nearshoring and reshoring efforts in response.
Diversification doesn't eliminate risk, but it does distribute it. Retailers with multiple sourcing options can shift spend toward lower-tariff or more stable suppliers when conditions change, rather than absorbing the full impact of every disruption.
5. What inventory and planning capabilities reduce disruption risk most effectively?
Two capabilities keep showing up across high-performing retailers: a single view of inventory across the network, and true landed cost visibility.
Network-wide inventory visibility allows retailers to shift stock intelligently when lead times lengthen, reducing out-of-stocks without requiring new orders. True landed cost ensures that pricing and promotional plans update when costs change, rather than running on assumptions that were accurate six weeks ago but aren't anymore.
Unifying sourcing, demand forecasting, and merchandise financial planning in one system means teams aren't restarting the process every time conditions shift. Data moves across functions. Decisions stay aligned.
Automation is what makes this scalable. Retailers that have eliminated manual handoffs between planning steps, such as auto-generated forecasts that flow directly into planning systems, have more planner time available for the strategic analysis that reduces exposure: scenario modeling, tariff impact assessment, and assortment repositioning.
Tariffs and supply disruptions are now a constant planning reality. The retailers managing them best are unifying financial, assortment, sourcing and inventory decisions so they can respond faster and protect margin. In this environment, resilient planning is a real competitive advantage.
