How accurate can a forecast become? One often hears “this is as good as it got, but we don’t know why." At Blue Yonder, we are not satisfied with that fatalistic answer. In this article, Blue Yonder's Malte Tichy advocates that we should – and that we often can – formulate natural limits to forecast accuracy from first principles in order to evaluate and rank forecast quality meaningfully.
This article originally appeared in Foresight, Issue Q3:23 (forecasters.org/foresight) and is made available with permission of Foresight and the International Institute of Forecasters.
